ORACLE — The edge prediction markets are missing

Markets priced at 48% YES resolve NO 79% of the time. ORACLE found that edge first -- and it's been compounding ever since. 8 independent signal channels. 93,000+ markets tracked. 68.8% accuracy on 170 markets scored before resolution.

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68.8%
Accuracy
On 170 markets scored before resolution
0
Wrong calls at score ≥60
High-conviction calls: perfect record
93,000+
Markets tracked
Polymarket + Kalshi
282
Resolved + tracked
Full outcome history, no synthetic data

Institutional intelligence for prediction markets

ORACLE is the institutional intelligence layer that prediction markets are missing. While traders on Polymarket ($10.57B monthly volume) and Kalshi ($11B valuation) make billion-dollar bets with nothing more than gut and a price chart, ORACLE aggregates 8 independent signal channels -- price velocity, macro regime, news sentiment, whale activity, historical calibration, and machine learning probability -- into a single 0-100 conviction score with directional call and confidence tier.

It tracks 93,000+ markets across both platforms, scores the highest-priority ones every 30 minutes, captures every resolution, and learns from each outcome. The result is a compounding track record that gets measurably more accurate over time.

Each independently predictive. Convergence = conviction.

Price Velocity

Directional momentum from 5-min price history. Bayesian accuracy: 94.3% on 35 attributed markets. Weight auto-boosted to 1.886x based on verified track record.

Market Regime

SPY/QQQ/VIX macro context. Adjusts signal weights for risk-on/risk-off environments. Prevents overconfidence during regime transitions.

News Sentiment

Google News RSS scored per market, database-cached every 2 hours. Detects narrative shifts before they move prices.

Whale Activity

Flags moves greater than 5 percentage points in a single 5-minute window. Detected Bulgaria Eurovision +46.7pp live -- informed positioning before the market corrected.

Historical Accuracy (Calibration Engine)

Built on 282 real resolutions. Finds price buckets where markets are systematically mispriced. The 48% YES to 21% YES resolution finding comes from this signal. No competing product offers this.

Resolution Timeline

Confidence modifier that correctly reduces conviction inside the final 24 hours -- when noise dominates signal. Prevents overtrading into expiry.

ML Probability

XGBoost classifier trained on real outcomes, retrained every Sunday. Bayesian weights updated from the prior week's resolution data. Gets more accurate every cycle.

Liquidity Gate

Filters dead or illiquid markets before they contaminate signals. Prevents false conviction from markets with no real price discovery happening.

Convergence architecture: two or more directional signals agreeing = HIGH conviction. Single-signal maximum caps at MEDIUM -- prevents false confidence on unconfirmed edges.

Markets near 50% are systematically mispriced

Markets opening at ~48% YES resolve YES only 21% of the time -- a 27-percentage-point NO edge hiding in plain sight.

Markets opening at ~52% YES resolve YES 66% of the time -- a 14pp YES edge.

Markets separated by just 4 percentage points at open have a 45pp difference in actual resolution rates. This is not noise: 50 markets in the 52% bucket, 19 in the 48% bucket. ORACLE's Signal 8 (Historical Accuracy) detects it automatically on every market scored.

Every call logged. Every outcome captured.

Overall accuracy on called markets68.8% on 170 markets
Wrong calls at conviction score ≥600
Price velocity accuracy94.3% on 35 attributed markets
Price velocity weight (Bayesian updated)1.0 → 1.886x
Markets resolved and tracked282
Price history records353,000+
Markets tracked (Polymarket + Kalshi)93,000+
Full prediction logPublic -- /dashboard → Track Record

Three access tiers

RETAIL
$99/mo

Daily top-20 signals + 7 AM email briefing. The highest-conviction markets scored every morning before the trading day.

PRO
$499/mo

All markets, full signal breakdown, real-time updates. See the individual signal scores behind every conviction rating.

INSTITUTIONAL API
$2,500/mo

REST API, webhooks, raw signal data, unlimited queries. Integrate ORACLE signal data directly into your own systems.

Get access to ORACLE

Active prediction market traders on Polymarket and Kalshi. Quantitative analysts who want programmatic access to institutional-grade signal data. Anyone who already has skin in the game and wants to know if their thesis has signal behind it.

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